Was it worth reading last January’s predictions for 2007 from Ethical Corporation? Well, yes. And no. But mostly yes

Twelve months ago, Ethical Corporation’s great and good gave their views on what the coming year would hold. As ever, they got some bits right, made some predictions that turned out to be wrong and, inevitably, some unexpected events got in the way just to make things more interesting.

The biggest financial story of the year was the global credit crunch, brought about in the fallout from a rash of home repossessions and the collapse of large parts of the US sub-prime mortgage market. In the clear vision of hindsight, the beginnings of the crisis were evident in late 2006, but there certainly were no wide scale predictions of doom a year ago. The Dow’s 1000-point fall in a few weeks over the summer and the first run on a UK bank in the modern era – the stricken Northern Rock – were among the most dramatic events. And, looking forward, a recession is still very much on the cards.

But despite the gloomy economic climate, business ethics issues have stayed centre stage. The world’s biggest companies – the likes of GE and Wal-Mart – are still vying to be the most ethical. It was predicted by our panel that, barring a recession, corporate responsibility issues would stay to the fore. Okay, perhaps we’ve not had a full-blown slump, but in a year of such turbulence it says much that responsibility is still at the top of the agenda.

Climate: a debate won?

In many respects 2007 was a year when the environment and climate issues really took centre stage, more so than the Ethical Corporation politburo predicted. Universally, it seems, the debate about climate change is increasingly not about if it’s happening but more about what to do about it. No-one now wants to be in the climate denying flat earth camp, particularly when even the White House has shifted its position so significantly.

Our panel highlighted the role of new UN secretary-general Ban Ki-moon, and one of the images of the year was his intervention at the UN Climate Change Conference in Bali last month. Tensions were running high, and it took all the skills of the world’s top diplomat, and the UN team, to see things through. The dramatic acquiescence of the US delegation when standing in the way of the eventual agreement was as noteworthy as the fact that there were business coalitions demanding binding targets as the only way to make a move to a lower carbon global economy stick.

Of course, the November election of Kevin Rudd as prime minister in Australia meant the removal of one of the few remaining climate change sceptics in John Howard. Whether his stance on the Kyoto Protocol – immediately signed, with a flourish, by Rudd when he took office – had an impact on the result or not, the symbolism of Howard’s heavy defeat, even losing his parliamentary seat, is marked.

Chavez hits the buffers

On the subject of politics, our panel wrongly predicted a continued rise in the powers of South America’s nationalists, led by Ethical Corporation’s old friend Hugo Chavez, president of Venezuela. The narrow but decisive defeat for Chavez in the recent referendum, which would have further centralised power and allowed him to stand for re-election as president indefinitely, may well mark a high-water mark for the Chavistas. However, while clearly accepting the result, he has pledged to continue his programme of socialist reforms.

Chavez’s defeat was greeted with undisguised glee in Washington, where our team had correctly predicted a period of tension between the Democratic Congress and the embers of the Bush administration. Progress has been made – though it took a watering down of a new energy bill, removing taxes for oil companies, as it passed through Congress last month for it to stand a chance of avoiding the presidential veto.

While the environment is, at least, on the agenda for the coming elections this year, it is the war in Iraq that is dominating for now, along with the old favourites such as healthcare, welfare reform and immigration issues.

So, despite a dramatic year, some things are still predictable. Another thing that is a safe bet, though, is that this time next year we’ll all be trying to second-guess what the next US president’s real agenda will be. The most important election of a generation? Could be.